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On Friday, November 10, 2017, President Trump left China for Vietnam. First Lady Melania Trump remained in China for another day:

Mrs Trump visited Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Anchorage for the Month of the Military Family Celebration. She then returned to Washington DC.

The US president spent two days in Vietnam before flying to the Philippines:

At the zoo, a group of schoolchildren greeted Mrs Trump. She had a gift for every child:

For anyone wondering:

Lucky children. They were able to tour the zoo with her:

Mrs Trump expressed her thanks for being able to see GuGu the panda:

Then it was time for her final destination:

The Conservative Treehouse gives us background on the tour:

First Lady Melania Trump visited the Mutianyu section of the Great Wall in China as the sun was starting to settle low on the horizon. It was windy and slightly cold as our First Lady signed a guest registry and was presented with a scroll from atop one of the seven wonders of the ancient world.

A state official said that Yukun Zhang, chairman, Mutianyu Great Wall Travel Service Co., Ltd, received the first lady after the ride up on the cable car. After signing the guest registry Mrs. Trump made her way up a short flight of stairs to the Great Wall.

Mrs Trump wore flats:

Meanwhile, the US president landed at Da Nang International Airport:

Trump met US veterans who chose to live in Vietnam after the war. They met at the Hyatt Regency Da Nang Resort and Spa. This transcript has his address and exchange with the retired soldiers. An excerpt follows:

Our accountability efforts in Vietnam are very, very important to all of us. We will not rest until all of the 1,253 missing veterans are returned home. I want to thank the government of Vietnam for their assistance in our efforts.

Today, I’m signing a proclamation to honor the veterans of the Vietnam War. This is part of the ongoing 13-year commemoration of their sacrifice for freedom. And I just want to thank these seven very brave people for being here. I got to know them for a few minutes upfront, and they are definitely tough, smart cookies. We like them. I think they like me too. I’m not sure, but I think — (applause) — no, I think they do. I think they do. I think they see what we’re doing for our military.

Would you like to say a few words, any of you guys? Would you like to say something? Huh?

MR. HOPPER: Sure.

PRESIDENT TRUMP: Come on. Come on up here. Here’s your chance. You can be a big star now.

MR. HOPPER: Well, I’m not sure about that. But just on behalf of many of us standing up in the front of the room today, I just want to say what an honor and privilege it is to be with our President. I so admire what you’re doing for our country.

Thank you for your dedication to our military, our country. And we’re all behind you in making America great again.

PRESIDENT TRUMP: Thank you very much. That’s so nice. Thank you very much.

MR. HOPPER: Thank you. Thank you. (Applause.)

MR. REYNOLDS: It’s an honor to be here. My family is so proud. My wife loves you. (Laughter.) She does. We all love you.

All of the veterans that I represent in my community asked me to say to you: Keep doing what you’re doing. We need to win. We need to make America great again. And we definitely think you are on the right track. So, thank you. It’s honor to meet you, sir.

PRESIDENT TRUMP: We will keep it going, and we will get it done.

MR. REYNOLDS: Absolutely.

PRESIDENT TRUMP: No doubt.

MR. REYNOLDS: I believe it. Thank you very much.

PRESIDENT TRUMP: Anybody?

MR. MORGAN: Mr. President, from my heart, thank you for your support of the military, and it’s an honor to be here as one of seven Vietnam veterans representing the 58,000 heroes who never made it home.

Thank you so much.

PRESIDENT TRUMP: Thank you so much. (Applause.)

MR. MORGAN: Thank you, sir. Thank you.

PRESIDENT TRUMP: You nervous?

MR. GOODE: I am nervous.

PRESIDENT TRUMP: I don’t think so. I don’t think so.

MR. GOODE: I am nervous.

You know, it’s an honor for me to be here today to meet the President of the United States that’s doing such a fine job for America. I’m so proud of him and what he’s doing, and I’m also really proud to represent all those veterans that are back home to be one of seven of these veterans that are here today. It’s such an honor to represent the rest of those veterans in the United States of America.

Thank you.

This is the text of the aforementioned proclamation. This year marks the 50th anniversary of the Vietnam War. Nearly every president since then has made a statement about finding the 1,253 missing veterans. Perhaps Trump will be the one to make that happen.

He also tweeted a 242nd happy birthday greeting to the United States Marine Corps.

Trump then went to the APEC CEO Summit 2017 at the Ariyana Da Nang Exhibition Center.

Trump addressed the summit. Note ‘H.E.’ before his name — His Excellency — in the video below:

The full transcript is here. This is is some of what he said:

This next one is really important:

This is also very important (emphases mine):

Earlier this week, I addressed the National Assembly in Seoul, South Korea and urged every responsible nation to stand united in declaring that every single step the North Korean regime takes toward more weapons is a step it takes into greater and greater danger. The future of this region and its beautiful people must not be held hostage to a dictator’s twisted fantasies of violent conquest and nuclear blackmail

We must also deal decisively with other threats to our security and the future of our children, such as criminal cartels, human smuggling, drugs, corruption, cybercrime, and territorial expansion. As I have said many times before: All civilized people must come together to drive out terrorists and extremists from our societies, stripping them of funding, territory, and ideological support. We must stop radical Islamic terrorism.

So let us work together for a peaceful, prosperous, and free Indo-Pacific. I am confident that, together, every problem we have spoken about today can be solved and every challenge we face can be overcome.

If we succeed in this effort, if we seize the opportunities before us and ground our partnerships firmly in the interests of our own people, then together we will achieve everything we dream for our nations and for our children.

We will be blessed with a world of strong, sovereign, and independent nations, thriving in peace and commerce with others. They will be places where we can build our homes and where families, businesses, and people can flourish and grow.

If we do this, will we look at the globe half a century from now, and we will marvel at the beautiful constellation of nations — each different, each unique, and each shining brightly and proudly throughout this region of the world. And just as when we look at the stars in the night sky, the distance of time will make most of the challenges we have and that we spoke of today seem very, very small.

What will not seem small — what is not small — will be the big choices that all of our nations will have to make to keep their stars glowing very, very brightly.

Another fabulous speech by Stephen Miller. What a man he is, blessed by God with a talent for prose.

He also met Vladimir Putin ahead of their meeting on November 11. Men were given silk Vietnamese shirts to wear for the evening’s events (the more formal photo is here):

The two did not meet formally at APEC, although they found time to converse. Reuters reported that they discussed defeating ISIS and confirmed their commitment to Syria’s sovereignty. The Daily Mail has more. Both media outlets say that the Kremlin issued a joint statement, however, the White House offered no confirmation.

The APEC gala dinner followed. Before dinner:

A cultural performance concluded a busy day.

Meanwhile, Mrs Trump was in Alaska and spent time talking with the children attending school at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Anchorage. The children were decorating paper fish and sculpting Play Doh:

She also spoke with military personnel:

Mrs Trump arrived at the White House late that night.

More on Trump’s second day in Vietnam tomorrow.

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As part of their tour of Asia …

… President Donald Trump and First Lady Melania Trump landed in China on Wednesday, November 8, 2017, as guests of President Xi Jinping and Madame Peng Liyuan.

The caption refers to the contrast with Obama’s arrival on September 4, 2016 in Beijing for the G20 summit, as the Telegraph reported:

All the other world leaders appeared to have been welcomed to the eastern Chinese city of Hangzhou in traditional diplomatic style, treading onto a red carpet laid on a rolling airport staircase positioned outside the main exit of the aircraft.

Mr Obama, however, instead used Air Force One’s smaller exit as he arrived on his final tour of Asia, sparking suggestions that he had been snubbed by his Chinese hosts.

The Chinese gave the Trumps a warm welcome, complete with a military honour guard, a marching band and cheering children (start at 12:00):

AP reported that this is highly unusual:

The ceremony accompanying Trump’s arrival Wednesday afternoon was elaborate even by China’s lavish standards. Heads of state are usually given a low-key reception at the airport, with the real pomp and circumstance reserved for his or her arrival at the Great Hall of the People in the center of Beijing.

This was the schedule for the day:

3:30pm / 2:30am THE PRESIDENT and THE FIRST LADY will have tea with President Xi Jinping of the Peoples Republic of China and Madame Peng Liyuan, Forbidden City, Beijing, Peoples Republic of China

3:55pm / 2:55am THE PRESIDENT and THE FIRST LADY tour the Forbidden City and view an opera performance with President Xi and Madame Peng Liyan, Forbidden City, Beijing, Peoples Republic of China.

6:00pm / 5:00am THE PRESIDENT and THE FIRST LADY have dinner with President Xi and Madame Peng, Beijing, Peoples Republic of China

7:05pm / 6:05am THE PRESIDENT and THE FIRST LADY depart the Forbidden City en route their overnight accommodations, Beijing, Peoples Republic of China.

The Forbidden City provided beautiful photo ops. The Hall of Supreme Harmony is in the background:

Someone tweeted:

Nothing says MAGA like tea and opera!

Indeed.

On the MAGA front, AFP reported:

US and Chinese companies signed nearly 20 deals worth a total $9 billion on Wednesday at the start of President Donald Trump’s state visit to Beijing.

US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross and Chinese Vice Premier Wang Yang oversaw a signing ceremony at the Great Hall of the People but they did not immediately give details about the 19 deals.

Wang said the agreements were merely a “warmup” before Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping oversee their own ceremony on Thursday involving bigger deals, including in exports of natural gas and soybeans.

Trump plans to use the three-day trip to press Xi on China’s massive trade surplus with the United States, which slightly fell in October to $26.6 billion, according to official Chinese data released on Wednesday.

The Daily Mail has photos of the Trumps touring other parts of the Forbidden City, including the Conservation Scientific Laboratory, where the elaborate automata clocks intrigued the president.

Then it was time for pleasant entertainment, albeit outdoors. There is no glass on the window where the Xis and the Trumps sat:

Afterwards, the Xis and the Trumps had dinner in the Forbidden City. Several media outlets have reported that no foreign leader has been given this honour since the People’s Republic of China was founded 68 years ago. This is YUGE!

That evening, Trump tweeted:

That tweet is a big deal, because China blocks access to Twitter, Facebook and other Western social media. Reuters reported that not only did Trump manage to evade what is known as the Great Firewall, he also changed his Twitter banner to a photo taken at the opera that evening:

The Twitter banner upload did not go unnoticed by Chinese state media, with state broadcaster CCTV flashing screenshots of the photograph on Thursday.

Trump’s visit was also the third-most talked-about topic on Chinese social media platform Weibo over the last 24 hours, trailing only the birthday of a singer in a Chinese boy band and a weekly Asian pop song chart.

Many people wondered how Trump managed to evade China’s tough internet controls …

Many foreigners log on to virtual private networks (VPNs) to access content hosted outside of China. Another option is to sign up for a data-roaming service before leaving one’s home country.

On the morning of Thursday, November 9, an impressive welcome ceremony took place, which shows what honoured guests the American president and first lady were.

The main American news channels did not broadcast this.

Yet, in China, this was the first time such an event was broadcast on live television.

Everything was more than perfect, from the soldiers’ standing to attention, their formations, to the military band music — which included The Star-Spangled Banner and Hail to the Chief — to the cheering Chinese and American schoolchildren. I’ve never seen such precision:

 

Afterwards, Xi, Trump and their respective delegations met in Peking’s Great Hall for a series of meetings. The two men met first in a closed door session, then invited their delegations to join them for discussions on trade, finance and security.

Reuters reported that a soybean deal was made. The US has a record crop:

The United States soybean industry has signed two letters of intent with Chinese importers covering a $5 billion purchase of an additional 12 million tonnes of soybeans in the 2017/18 marketing year.

The non-binding agreements, disclosed by the U.S. Soybean Export Council (USSEC) in a statement, are among a series of trade deals announced during the visit of U.S. President Donald Trump to Beijing. China is the world’s top soybean buyer, and the United States is its second supplier after Brazil.

In the first agreement, signed on Nov. 8, the China Chamber of Commerce of Foodstuffs and Native Produce said it intended to purchase 8 million tonnes of U.S. soybeans worth $3.4 billion.

A second agreement will be signed on Thursday between grains trader ADM and China’s COFCO for intent to purchase 4 million tonnes of soybeans worth $1.6 billion, said the USSEC.

LNG — liquid natural gas — was also on the agenda, as CNBC reported:

Despite the recent gains and the agreement with Trump, Chinese buyers are still only purchasing U.S. LNG from third parties in short-term spot trades. And there is currently only one company, Cheniere Energy, capable of exporting large shipments of LNG from the United States.

Cheniere CEO Jack Fusco and Texas LNG Chief Operating Officer Langtry Meyer are joining the Trump delegation. The companies did not respond to questions about their agenda in China, but energy research firm Wood Mackenzie said securing commitments is likely at the top of Trump’s list.

“The fact that Trump will arrive in Beijing with a large business delegation in tow, including a sizeable contingent from the energy sector, indicates that the White House is looking to secure concrete commercial agreements from the upcoming trip,” Kerry-Anne Shanks, head of Asia gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said in an email briefing on Tuesday.

While meetings took place, Madame Pen Liyaun took Mrs Trump on a tour of China’s Art and Design School in Beijing:

That afternoon, the two leaders held a joint press conference in the Great Hall.

The Conservative Treehouse summarised Trump’s remarks (emphasis in the original):

President Trump followed President Xi’s remarks with a speech as deliberate and unambiguous as the internal audience would ever fathom hearing.  President Trump respectfully pulled no punches in his direct and emphatic style; stating that China needed to engage in, well, to use China’s familiar wording, “correct thinking” on a variety of issues – including trade and their necessary responsibility toward North Korea.

No-one else could pull this off, except Trump. Not that way. The best part is always the emphatic part at the end.  President Trump gives the look saying: well, that’s that then; that’s all I’ve got to say about that... smiles bigly, and the diplomatic opponent tries not to look smaller than they were ten minutes earlier. [key word, ‘tries‘] …

Also note Trump’s alpha male handshake:

That evening, President Xi and Madame Peng Liyuan hosted a state dinner in the Trumps’ honour. Like the welcome ceremony, films of the two men from prior meetings were shown beforehand. The optics were clear — Xi clearly respects Trump. As the original video posted was withdrawn, I had to swap to a less detailed one:

After the film clips, Xi gave a speech, followed by Trump.

Xi recalled President Richard Nixon’s trip to China 45 years ago during the Cold War. He spoke of the two countries’ continuing partnership and co-operation to better mankind. He then offered a toast. Trump smiled broadly, raising his glass (soft drink).

Then, it was Trump’s turn to speak. A flourish of trumpets preceded his speech. He thanked Xi for his ‘generous words’ and warm hospitality ‘from the moment we arrived’. He spoke of their tour of the Forbidden City. He said their meetings presented an ‘incredible opportunity’ to spread ‘peace and prosperity’ around the world. He spoke of the historic characteristics that the US and China share, including venturing into the unknown. He spoke of achieving a ‘more just, fair and peaceful world for our children’. He looked forward to ‘a friendship that will grow stronger and stronger’. He then offered a toast.

President Xi — and the rest of the room — gave Trump a standing ovation.

After a film of Trump’s granddaughter Arabella Kushner (Ivanka’s daughter) sang all the verses of a folk song — My Good Mother — in Mandarin, which the Xis clearly loved. Peng Liyuan, a former folk singer, sang along softly. Arabella began by addressing Xi and Peng as ‘grandpa’ and ‘grandma’ — a child diplomat!

Then, dinner was served. Afterwards, entertainment was provided in the form of a cultural performance.

On the subject of fair trade and how China has taken advantage of the United States for so many years, Trump said:

Trump had a tremendous visit:

CNBC reported that 37 major trade deals have been signed:

The dollar value of those deals is in excess of $250 billion. Caterpillar, Boeing, and Goldman Sachs are just some of the notable names on the list of companies that made deals with China, the full list of which is below.

See the article for more details.

More to follow tomorrow. Mrs Trump stayed in China for another day while President Trump flew to Vietnam.

What a week and it’s only Tuesday! Lots of news to cover in the days ahead.

On Monday, November 28, 2016, Cardinal Joseph Zen, a former bishop of Hong Kong, warned that Pope Francis:

may not know the Communist persecutors who have killed hundreds of thousands.

The Guardian reported that the Pope is working on an agreement whereby Chinese officials could have a hand in approving Catholic bishops.

Zen criticised the move, pointing out that it would be:

a surrender

and

betraying Jesus Christ.

Zen made his remarks at the Salesian English School in Hong Kong, where, at age 84, he is still a teacher. He added:

Maybe the pope is a little naive, he doesn’t have the background to know the Communists in China. The pope used to know the persecuted Communists [in Latin America], but he may not know the Communist persecutors who have killed hundreds of thousands.

It’s amazing that anyone the Pope’s age would not know the statistics and nature of Chinese Communists, but perhaps the Cardinal was being charitable.

Currently, Chinese Catholics are free to worship at state-approved churches. The state-controlled China Catholic Patriotic Association appoints their bishops.

However, an underground network of Catholic churches also exists, thought to attract many more Catholics than the state churches.

Why does the Vatican seek this new agreement? Zen explained:

With “fake freedom” under a proposed deal, priests could more easily preach and more churches would open, Zen predicted, but “it’s only the impression of freedom, it’s not real freedom, the people sooner or later will see the bishops are puppets of the government and not really the shepherds of the flock.”

“The official bishops are not really preaching the gospel,” Zen added “They are preaching obedience to Communist authority.”

That brings to mind the warning from Jeremiah about leading one’s flock astray. The Pope and clergy agreeing with him on this subject might have a lot to answer for one day.

Oddly, some Chinese Catholics welcome the proposed Vatican agreement, still under negotiation for the foreseeable future:

“If they could really strike a deal, not only would us Catholics be happy, but all of the Chinese people should rejoice,” said Zhao, 36, who has been a Catholic for 20 years and works at the oldest Catholic church in China, close to Tiananmen Square in Beijing. He declined to give his full name because of the sensitivity of discussing religion.

“Chinese society needs faith right now,” he added, saying a warming of ties would increase the number of Catholics, “which is a benefit to all society”.

The Guardian says that China has an estimated 10m Catholics and 90m Protestants. The New York Times gives a more conservative estimate of 60m Christians.

Protestant churches are also required to be registered with the Chinese state and operate within government rules.

Unregistered Protestant churches are actively vandalised by the state:

a recent campaign by authorities in eastern China has seen more than 1,200 crosses removed from buildings and churches demolished.

The New York Times has more on vandalism and arrests concerning the Salvation Church and the Living Stone Church, both of which are unregistered and deemed to be dangerous to the state.

This is the third — and final — instalment of FBI Anon’s comments on 4chan.

Please read Part 1 and Part 2 to understand not only what is going on in the Clinton case but also for clues on geopolitical developments.

Part 1 explains more about FBI Anon and how he came to be somewhat of a regular on the 4chan Ask Me Anything (AMA) posts. Part 2 has a comment on his credibility, probably 90% with some ‘nonsense’ thrown in so he can keep his job.

N.B.: Both Parts 1 and 2 ended up on discussion boards here and here. (Thanks!) Both threads speculate on whether FBI Anon is Steve Pieczenik, a Harvard-trained psychiatrist who is a regular on the Alex Jones Show and has his own website. Obviously, no one can say for certain, but, personally, I doubt it. FBI Anon is working on the Clinton case and is most probably an FBI agent. Pieczenik worked for the State Department in the 1970s and 1980s in specialised operations such as psychological warfare, hostage situations and terrorism. It would seem that both men share the same worldview and have access to similar — but not identical — information and people that would cause them to arrive at similar conclusions.

What follows comes from the FBI Anon chat of October 17. Given the current resumption of the Clinton email investigation , it is probable that this is the most up-to-date information we are likely to receive before the election on Tuesday, November 8.

By October 17, the Billy Bush video of Trump had already circulated.

I have divided his comments up by topic, cleared up salty language, corrected spelling and added more information in brackets. Emphases mine below.

Is the CIA involved in the Clinton investigation?

No. The Intelligence agencies are like modern-day gangs, owing allegiance to no one and cooperating only when necessary and even then, only to a limited degree.

The polls

Trump is winning by around 20% with a 5% MOE. The election is a landslide right now, but the MSM is trying to engineer his downfall. Ironically, women voters liked that Trump tape.

[Someone objected to the 20% figure] You’re forgetting millions who have not voted before. Many polls only sample registered voters or people with a history. Trump will bring in millions who have never voted, including people too shy to be vocal about their support. Independents, which are also a huge shadow bloc, have also moved en masse to Trump. We have internal polls for our own projections as well, and so do the campaigns and the national committees. I guarantee they all see the same thing: a Trump landslide.

If he was not winning, what would be the point [of poll rigging]? They could simply ignore him and do what they did with Ron Paul.

I remember seeing an infograph a while back where someone plotted the oversampling of democrats in polls. That is a very useful tool.

Is there more to come on Trump?

I know they have a tape of him making a lightly off-color remark about blacks [referring to an ‘Uncle Tom’ remark on The Apprentice], but beyond that I have no idea. They really can’t find much on him, hence why the MSM has resorted to crafting narratives out of thin air.

Rigged election and the Clinton campaign

It depends at this point. The political mood right now favors a Trump landslide. HRC and the global elite have two ways to stop him:

1) Slander him to the point of extreme unfavorability, even with core supporters

2) Rig the polls

They are concerned because Trump has brought attention to #2, which was the exact same strategy with Bernie. Therefore they are attempting #1, but the issue is whenever people attack Trump viciously, his support grows. He maintains strength by always finding a new enemy to attack, and the last month he is pulling out the big guns and naming the true face of all of our problems: large, multinational corporations and their leaders.

The bluest states Trump can win

He will win PA and CA

[The next two comments concern California]

Most likely.

1) Trump will do well with Hispanics
2) Trump’s LGBT stance has more of an effect on liberal yuppies than you think
3) California’s population is declining, and only older, more affluent people are voting, i.e. Trump’s primary demographic.
4) The shy Trump supporter effect will take place en masse in CA

NY is Hillary’s no matter what.

The lack of GOPe support for Trump

They attempted a coup because they are bought by the same interests as the Dems. They believed it would hurt Trump, but it only makes them look like fools. Paul Ryan‘s political indecision is one example.

[GOPe McMullin’s chances] No one cares about Egg McMuffin

The chances of a Trump victory

95% Trump victory.

Can voters really beat the fraud and the rigging?

Yes. The rigging works by counting the votes to a higher percentage based on the MOE. So HRC’s votes may count for 1.2 votes isntead of one. Therefore, an overwhelming majority will give Trump a win.

Trump can win, but not without overwhelming support.

Will they ‘mess around’ with electoral votes?

They always do

Will Hillary and the Democrats contest a Trump win?

They will contest, but a re-check will yield the same result.

Trump’s presidential agenda

Trump fully intends to clean house in Washington and with the power brokers of major corporations.

He wants to Make America Great Again. He despises the powerful who have enabled themselves by throwing smaller people under the bus.

[Could he put George Soros in jail?] No.

[There would be an] increase in utilities, industry, and energy sector

Would it be good to enlist in the military during a Trump presidency?

Yes.

The possibility of a third party winning in future

No third party will take control in America for a long time

Possible Obama pardon for Hillary

If HRC loses, she will be pardoned by Obama. O will then proceed to deteriorate our relations with Russia even further.

What would happen if Hillary won and Americans revolted?

It is very likely HRC would institute martial law and permit the military to conduct safety drills against the revolt

Hillary and gun control

She intends to do an Australia-style gun control, with strict tax punishments for people who refuse to take part in the system.

Sectors favourable under a Hillary presidency

Boost to financials and healthcare

Secret Service opinion of Hillary

HRC is awful. I actually had a conversation with a former secret service agent friend of mine (female). She was assigned to Bill back in the day but she hated Hillary because apparently Hillary hated the Secret service.

Hillary is the least charming person on the planet

Hillary’s sporadic bursts of energy

… whatever she is on is designed to make her energetic for long periods of time.

Hillary’s health

… most likely … Parkinson’s

What does Hillary smell like?

[a few reports and interviews have been circulating claiming she smells like sulfur]

She smells like hair spray and cardboard

Is Clinton involved in satanic activity and/or into extraterrestrials?

Black magic yes. Extraterrestrials I cannot answer.

[Podesta emails point to his interest in extraterrestrials. Articles have also indicated a Clinton interest in UFOs.]

[re satanism and a reference to the Clintons’ close relationship with the late Cardinal Bernardin, also rumoured to be a satanist] Correct.

Are there incriminating Hillary tapes?

No. But there is one of her talking about how blacks are disgusting and poor.

I don’t possess it. You will see it in time. It is kind of funny.

Is there a Bill Clinton ‘rape tape’?

I am not sure.

Is Assange dead?

No. Very scared, but still alive. Whether or not that will change in the next few days is questionable.

[Re Hillary’s remark on droning him] She wants to.

[Re Assange and John Kerry] I have no idea. I am waiting to see what those keys were that they released on Twitter. They are threatening someone.

2016 deaths ‘linked to Clinton’

Potentially 20, confirmed 6

[Latest one] A man in Pennsylvania who knew about the voting machines.

Justice Antonin Scalia’s mysterious death

The common assumption is Scalia was murdered to help bring about gun control via another justice. But then any justice could have been sacked. What was Scalia doing before he died? What topic was he interested in?

Clinton camp’s biggest worry

The truth about the disgusting delights of the Clintons and the global elite coming to light

How did the Clintons get to be so awful?

Bill is a political mastermind. Hillary wasn’t always so corrupt, but once she saw the ptential for power, it drove her to what you see now.

HRC loves power and death.

Does Jeffrey Epstein have anything on the Clintons?

He has nothing.

Mark Cuban

Cuban wanted some loopholes and goodies to remain, but in private conversation Trump let it be known that he intends to fully wipe the slate clean. Cuban did not like that, so he went full HRC because it ultimately benefits him more.

Huma Abedin

She helps the Muslim Brotherhood hold HRC’s ear

Can’t the DNC see what a mistake they made?

There has been significant regret since her 9/11 incident. Unfortunately, there is nothing anyone can do. The Clitnons have bought and paid for the presidency again, the only thing stopping them is Trump.

USS Mason/Yemen situation

The rebels we supported are firing at us with our own tech because they’re too dumb to realize who sold them weapons.

China

Currently China is shutting down power in major cities in small bursts to test our power grid.

Russia

[Re Obama starting aggression against them before Trump can take office] No, but the goal is to erode relations to the point where Russia will be withdrawn to whoever is President. Even Trump will not take acts of aggression lightly. Obama will flirt with war as long as he can, just enough to make the Russians think poorly of Americans under any scenario. Then Trump will have much more work to restore relations when he gets in.

The Trump Campaign headquarters attacks are all orchestrated. Virtually everything going on right now is a distraction from the imminent threat of war with Russia.

[Possibility of nuclear war with the US] Yes (Russia just did a nuclear bombing drill in Moscow with 40 million people – the US population is still unaware anyhting major is going on)

World War III

I suspect a major war in the next year or two regardless of who is elected. I had hoped that Trump would be able to bring about more peace, but the people he is fighting are determined not to allow it.

[Global elites to trigger it?] Based on recent events, yes.

[Could it start before the end of 2016?] Maybe.

[What country will start it?] Israel or the United States (expect another 9/11 style false flag)

[Countries involved] It will be the US & Japan Vs. China, India, and Russia. I had previously thought India was on our side, but it looks like they may swap allegiances.

[Re India] They have been making deals with Russia, and by proxy they will warm up to China should the US pose a serious threat. Try reading the news.

Savings and production are what drive an economy. China will be hurt by war, but they have savings and a strong production base. Even with a ton of debt, they can pull off a war. The US, on the other hand, is a result of the spend/invest mentality. We have no manufacturing base which can compete globally.

EU will be in WW3, but the collapse of the EU will render them militarily impotent for the most part.

Should people watch out for false flags?

Yes

The next false flag may deal with an explosion of a plant or facility controlled by an electrical grid

The NWO

The ruling class simply wants to rule over an indifferent mass. However, many do believe that in the end times, a war of ideas will occur and they will prevail through the intervention of a “messiah”. Which makes it scarier because there are powerful people who legitimately believe through mass war and death, peace will come.

[Really?] Yes

The Owl of Minerva is an important gesture in upper circles

They don’t see the world as you do. They live in an insulated world of riches and power, and they do not know what it is like to struggle of live paycheck to paycheck. Even though Hillary did as a child, she is so far removed now it doesn’t matter.

[Does George Soros have the Spear of Destiny used to pierce Christ?] No

Who really runs the US government?

George Soros and anyone who considers themselves a Zionist.

[This type of control happened in] 1913

The possibility of conflict involving ‘Constitutional Americans’

Truthfully, I don’t know.

What are the ‘good guys” chances if civil war breaks out?

Who knows at that point?

If Hillary is elected, civil war is a near certainty.

[Could she die before then?] Not likely. Death in 2018-2020 after starting war

The validity of The Citizens Audit

It is asking the right questions, and yes, many of HRC’s PACs and even her campaign solicit foreign money and shadow money.

Credibility of 4chan’s Knowledge Bomb threads

[Part of the question: ‘Some of the things he says make sense, but others seem really out there (like members of the EU being part of a sex club involving refugees).’]

His information is legit.

Is Podesta WikiLeaks email 2010 important?

Very important

FBI Anon’s accuracy

I’ve been wrong a few times, but in my job, being right is not a prerequisite. I only plan for things that may or may not happen.

I have been answering and *mostly giving out correct info for months. The only reason why there is so much doubt now is because CTR and other PAC’s are flooding this board trying to sow doubt wherever they can, and it is unfortunately having an effect. This board was once vehemently pro-trump, but many are beginning to feel doubt.

[Regarding not using consistent self-identification] Because it gives me enough plausible deniability in case someone should want to come looking for me. It’s also the reason why sometimes I give disinformation – it helps give just enough doubt to keep serious people from prying.

I have not claimed to be anything other than someone with knowledge of HRC’s case.

I try to limit these to once per month.

FBI Anon’s wife

Thank you, my wife is giddy to be remembered. Too bad these are dark times.

Which is more important: WikiLeaks or the Clinton Foundation?

The next few batches of the WikiLeaks dumps should help answer this. It will all start to make sense when you connect the dots.

And, as an aisde, when you are reading Podesta’s e-mails, remember that the Clintons deal in weapons, drugs, and people. Some terminology in use is far more nefarious than many of you suspect.

“cards” [Child Abduction Rapid Deployment]

“favors”, “extras”, “officers”

[What next WikiLeaks will reveal] Evidence of favors for foreign nationals including the sale of human beings.

I know a lot of info regarding their movements of people and children.

Will we see all 33,000 emails?

The NSA has them, it’s just a matter of time before someone hacks them or releases them.

Vote in person or by mail?

Vote in person, always.

Voting in person allows you to be sure your vote was cast the way you desire. You never know what happens to your paper after it is mailed in.

What the public can do

You should be [fighting hard to make sure Hillary is not elected].

Sign up to be an election watcher.

Have faith in Trump, fight hard against the shills.

Vote. Encourage everyone you know to vote. Explain that a vote for Hillary is a vote for mass war and death.

Do not give up hope.

A few weeks ago when wrapping up the 2014 Paralympic Games in Sochi, I referred to a court case in France involving a man who had murdered his six-year old daughter.

Johana Carneiro was a tetraplaegic who had Down’s Syndrome. She was also an epileptic. She had to be helped with every aspect of her life. The father, Americo Carneiro, formerly of Portugal, is a 44-year old stonemason. Mrs Carneiro is bipolar and, according to her husband, spends most of her days on the sofa. She has also been treated in psychiatric hospitals for her condition.

Consequently, Mr Carneiro himself became severely depressed, seeking refuge in psychotropes and alcohol. By the time he put his hand over his daughter’s mouth whilst she slept on January 3, 2011 in Boulancourt (Seine-et-Marne), the court determined that he had lost aspects of his rational judgment.

During his trial, Carneiro described his daughter as ‘smiling’, ‘cheerful’ and ‘making progress’ in the special school where she went when he was at work. Carneiro said he took desperate measures because he worried for her future should anything happen to him.

Carneiro was so depressed that his original plan was to murder his daughter, then his wife. He intended to commit suicide. He had already transferred €10,000 to his mother’s bank account to cover the cost of their funerals. He testified that he lost the courage to do away with his wife and himself.

Carneiro’s barristers and the judges found this an extremely difficult case. Psychiatrists testified that he was a loving father but emotionally ‘spent’.

Counsel and judges used the following principles to arrive at a suspended sentence of five years in prison. The sentence had to reflect that Carneiro:

1/ Deeply regretted what he did and was severely depressed.

2/ Had no right to take his daughter’s life, even if she was disabled and had Down’s Syndrome.

3/ Had an extreme combination of extenuating circumstances weighing upon him as the head of his family.

Therefore, they determined that his sentence needed to reflect that he acted wrongly whilst at the same time showing the court had compassion for him in his suffering.

It seems another person would have gone to the school early on to ask the specialists for help. Surely, he couldn’t be the only such parent in France needing a lot of support in his situation.

It is not unheard of for mothers of a Down’s Syndrome child to become severly depressed. I knew a lady who spent most days lying in bed. She was on antidepressants. Although she was a nurse before she married and had a family — she had several other healthy children — deep down she felt responsible for her child being born the way he was. They put the boy in a dedicated home for Down’s Syndrome sufferers where he could receive the care he needed. She and her husband — a physician — were practising Catholics. Despite his unpredictable work schedule, he kept the family together on a daily basis, including preparing supper when the children were younger.

Therefore, I do not know why some families fare better than others in this respect. It seems that age, education and money are no barrier to severe depression following the birth of a disabled child. If you have any experience with these situations, please feel free to comment below.

As for the Parlympians and participants in America’s Special Olympics, I am grateful that their parents helped them to thrive despite all odds.

To conclude on this subject, I read the comments following the Carneiro case and was appalled at how many said it was right for the father to murder his daughter because of her severe disabilities. I also know several people who believe that if pregnancy scans discover such a foetus, the mother should have an abortion. Sadly, eugenics is not dead.

A few days after the Carneiro verdict, I read an article on the Episcopal site Stand Firm about a Chinese man who carries his disabled son to and from school every day. It is an 18-mile round trip. The Daily Mail reported on the family. The father said (emphases mine):

‘I have carried him there and back now since last September, every morning I get up at 5am to prepare a lunch for him to eat and then I walk the four-and-a-half miles to the school, and then come back here so I can work to earn money. I then walk back to the school to pick up my son and bring him home.’

He said that he estimates he has walked around 1,600 miles up and down hills backwards and forwards since he started counting: ‘My son with his disabilities is not in a position to walk on his own and it also means that he can’t ride a bike. Despite being 12 he’s just 90 cm tall. But I am proud of the fact that he is already top of his class and I know he will achieve great things. My dream is that he will go to college.’

As Stand Firm’s Sarah Hey says:

So many things run through my head when I read a story like this.

I think I’ve got problems?  I need to think again.

People are really desperate and will do desperate things—some good, some bad. I have so much respect for this man—he does what he must.

How much this man must love his son, as disabled as he is. He has such hopes for him. Such faith. As much as he loves his son, God loves us even more. He is willing to go to immense lengths for us, not merely one time through death on the cross, but every single day in a variety of ways.

I wish the Carneiro family had had a different outcome. Nonetheless, as several French commenters and legal experts have said, Mr Carneiro will have his late daughter on his mind more often than not.

May we remember parents and families of disabled children in our prayers as well as the children themselves. May all be guided by His divine grace.

My thanks to Rogue Lutheran who wrote in last week with links to a story with which I was unfamiliar but had been wondering about.

For over 15 years, I have pondered how our global economy puts so much emphasis on trading newish financial instruments such as derivatives, collateralised debt obligations and credit default swaps.  Yes, they make big money, but whatever happened to simpler trades of commodities or foreign exchange rates — what used to be known as ‘speculation’ — and was something that most people could understand?

The next two posts will explore this phenomenon, which began in the late 20th century, and is contributing to our current global economic meltdown.  It involves ‘dead hard sums’ (a phrase borrowed from the satirical comic magazine Viz) which attempt to smooth out investment and actuarial risk whilst continuing to spin money.

For any financial or mathematical boffins reading this, I’m only trying to simplify this for my readers.  This is not intended to be a financial industry white paper!  Sources are listed at the bottom of the post.

A highly gifted man named David X Li has had a part to play in this.  However, as we shall see, he is not the only guilty party.

From China to Canada

Xiang Lin Li was born in 1963 in China.  His father was, the Financial Times says, ‘a mid-ranking police official’, a low-echelon public official whom Chairman Mao’s government moved to the countryside for re-education.  This is where the young Li grew up and attended school.  Most children in his situation had few prospects of attending school or going on to higher education, but Li was not only exceptionally bright, he also applied himself diligently to his studies.

After secondary school, he attended Nankai University, one of China’s top institutions of higher learning, where he earned a master’s degree in Economics.  In 1987, the Canadian government worked with the Chinese to sponsor some of China’s best students at their universities.  Chinese officials at the time were eager to find out more about the inner workings of capitalism and sent a group of their best and brightest across the Pacific.  Among these graduates was Xiang Lin Li, who, anxious to be selected, had learned French in four months in his own time whilst completing his master’s.

Li attended Laval University in Quebec and earned his MBA.  He then earned a PhD in Statistics from the University of Waterloo in Ontario.  Whilst he had been in Canada, the regime in China had changed, becoming less open to the West.  Remember Deng Xiaoping and the Tianamen Square demonstrations in 1989?  Li, understandably, had little desire to return to his homeland and began looking at other options in North America.  He even changed his name to David X Li.

Meanwhile, big changes were taking place in the financial and insurance industries, both of which were looking at more accurate risk and pricing models which involved complex mathematical calculations.  Around the same time, the arms race of the Cold War had come to an end.  A number of physicists who had worked on related projects in the defence industry began looking for new jobs.  The buzz in their specialised circle was that they could make substantial salaries in Wall Street, the City of London (financial district) or Silicon Valley.  Li was undoubtedly aware of the opportunities open to mathematical geniuses.

Applied mathematics on Wall Street

Back in 1984, Robert Rubin — who later served as US Treasury Secretary — was working for Goldman Sachs. He, too, was interested in improving the investment bank’s financial modelling and approached Fischer Black, a tenured academic at MIT’s Sloan School of Management. Black’s speciality was Economics and he had published several sophisticated papers about the relationship between Economics and the financial markets.

Thanks to Rubin, Black was the first to move to Wall Street to put his theories into practice.  Rubin’s gamble on hiring Black paid off handsomely. In order to come up with a rational price for Goldman’s market risks, Black used a mathematical model — Black-Scholes — which he and Myron Scholes developed in 1973.  Myron Scholes would later win the 1997 Nobel Prize in Economics.  Black-Scholes was the starting point for what is known as quantitative finance.  The specialists who work on the complex mathematical models are known as quants.

In 1985, a particle physicist Emanuel Derman — no doubt one of the aforementioned looking to segue into a new field — joined Goldman and worked for Black. He later took over Black’s responsibilities for the bank.  Black died in 1995 at the age of 57.

A number of physicists went into this type of work, which was, understandably, highly paid.  It was not uncommon for them to be referred to as POWs — Physicists on Wall Street.  Some traders did not take kindly to these quants and made deprecating remarks about their scientific prowess and perceived geekiness.  Nonetheless, the quants’ work helped the traders make even more money.

More on this tomorrow.  For now, suffice it to say that quantitative finance had its first major hiccup in 1998.  Long Term Capital Management (LTCM), a hedge fund which had benefited from the genius of the quants, suddenly needed a bailout from the US government.  The quants had not realised the global correlation of risk.  It turned out that the same investors around the world were putting money into the same markets.  On this point, the Financial Times explains that Russia’s financial crisis of 1998 caused panic selling in Mexico.  One country’s bond crisis — Russia’s — would have an adverse effect on another country several thousand miles away.  Therefore, the risk pattern of correlation was much wider than LTCM’s quants had imagined.

Dr Li’s North American career

By the time Dr Li earned his doctorate in 1997, the quants were well-established in the world of high finance.  Li’s contemporaries did not envisage him going into an academic career.  He was too ambitious and too driven a personality.  They were not wrong.  That year, he began working for the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC).

In 1998, he moved to New York for a job with a consultancy, the RiskMetrics Group, an offshoot of JP Morgan.  Although unrelated, LTCM’s request for a bailout occurred that same summer.  Nonetheless, the quants’ prestige continued unabated in the finance and insurance industries. Insurance companies were employing quants in order to determine more accurate pricing of annuities.  The quants there were working at the top of the actuary scale, where there was equally big money to be made.

Part of Li’s work included actuarial science. He gave much thought to the ‘broken heart syndrome’, whereby a widow(er) dies soon after the spouse.  Quants working in actuarial science in or for the insurance industry attempt to perfect complex mathematical models predicting the probability and risk of when and how often this might happen.  Better models provide insurance companies with more realistic prices for life insurance policies and annuities.

Two years later, Li was working for JP Morgan Chase & Co.  He published a paper in the Journal of Fixed Income. In his paper he applied his previous work with actuarial science and the broken heart syndrome.  The paper explored — and attempted to solve — the problem of default correlation, the interdependency of risk which LTCM had not fully realised.  Default correlation was one of Wall Street’s greatest problems.

He explained his reasoning:

Suddenly I thought that the problem I was trying to solve was exactly like the problem these guys were trying to solve. Default is like the death of a company, so we should model this the same way we model human life.

Li’s paper developed a model adapted from one which actuarial science uses for financial markets. Li’s model is called the Gaussian copula.  ‘Copula’ is a Latin word meaning ‘link’ or ‘tie’. In probability theory and statistics it refers to the dependence between random variables.  ‘Gaussian’ refers to Carl Friedrich Gauss, a 19th century German statistician.

Li’s paper took the financial world by storm. The Wall Street Journal explains how it works, in principle:

To figure out the likelihood of defaults in a bond pool, the model uses information about the way investors are treating each bond — how risky they’re perceiving its issuer to be. The market’s assessment of the default likelihood for each company, for each of the next 10 years, is encapsulated in what’s called a credit curve. Banks and traders take the credit curves of all 100 companies in a pool and plug them into the model.

The model runs the data through the copula function and spits out a default correlation for the pool — the likelihood of all of its companies defaulting on their debt at once. The correlation would be high if all the credit curves looked the same, lower if they didn’t. By knowing the pool’s default correlation, banks and traders can agree with one another on how much more the riskiest slice of the bond pool ought to yield than the most conservative slice.

We’ll look at more theory and applications behind the Gaussian copula tomorrow — without the ‘dead hard sums’.

In short, the Gaussian copula opened up the financial markets to newer, more sophisticated and sexier financial instruments, such as the synthetic CDO (credit default obligation).  Huge sums of money are traded every day and reflected in the salaries and bonuses which traders and analysts  make every year.

The Barnstable Patriot describes another:

It was called a Credit Default Swap (CDS). The CDS was a derivative attached to each subprime bundle. This derivative permitted an investor who bought one of these securities to swap the risk of default with a designated counterparty, such as AIG. The price of the CDS, determined by the market’s assessment of the imbedded risk, was the insurance fee paid by the investor.

The newly minted investment grade securities flew out the door. Hundreds of billions worth of them ended up in the coffers of institutions. The CDSs were even more popular. They started trading independently as bets on the likelihood of specific defaults (counterparties still had to pay off in the event of default). Before long $60 trillion worth of them (an amount larger than all the economies of the world combined) were outstanding.

And therein lies the problem.  With all of this risk bundling (again, for tomorrow), these instruments require analysis before they go onto the market.  The outcome is only as good as the numbers plugged in to the equation at the start.  Li later warned in 2005:

Very few people understand the essence of the model.

But that didn’t stop the banks from going full-tilt with it. Ratings agencies Moody’s and Standard and Poor’s also adopted it.

In 2006, the subprime housing market began to unravel. The Financial Times explained in 2009:

The cheap debt made available by the finance revolution was so cheap, in fact, that the loans should never have been made. And the correlation model was still mapping the housing market as it had been in 1990s, not the grossly inflated monster it had become. The development of the model had, ironically, changed the nature of the reality it was modelling.

However, Li’s Gaussian copula assumed a ‘normal’ state of affairs. Whilst it worked well for actuaries, the financial world is beset by more random events and unpredictability.  Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of The Black Swan, was one of a handful to point this out:

The thing never worked. Anything that relies on correlation is charlatanism.

Investment banks counter this by saying they use a variety of mathematical models, not just the Gaussian copula.  Perhaps, but maybe they need to keep a keener eye on the quants, their methods and their inputs.

Where is Li now?

In 2007, David Li returned to China. In 2008, Wired says that he started working in Beijing as the head of the risk management department of the China International Capital Corporation.  He does not speak to the press.

Of Dr Li and the Gaussian copula, the Barnstable Patriot concludes:

Conspiracy theorists can be forgiven for wondering this episode was part of an intricate plot to destroy our system. If so, it almost worked, and may yet do so.

I’m not sure it was a conspiracy.  China would have been caught up in the nexus as well.  However, what we do learn from this is that greed can kill a global economy — and our future.

Sources:

‘Credit Derivatives Got a Boost from Clever Pricing Model; Hedge Funds Misused It’ – Wall Street Journal, 2005

‘Recipe for Disaster: The Formula That Killed Wall Street’ – Wired, 2009

‘The formula that felled Wall Street’ – Financial Times, 2009

‘The mysterious Dr Li’ – Barnstable Patriot (Massachusetts), 2010

Tomorrow: How the Gaussian copula is used

© Churchmouse and Churchmouse Campanologist, 2009-2017. Unauthorized use and/or duplication of this material without express and written permission from this blog’s author and/or owner is strictly prohibited. Excerpts and links may be used, provided that full and clear credit is given to Churchmouse and Churchmouse Campanologist with appropriate and specific direction to the original content.
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