UK general election campaign off to a creaky start

The UK’s general election campaign got off to a spluttering start over the weekend, or should that be weakend?

Conservative Party drain

On Friday, May 24, 2024, Guido Fawkes published the full list of 78 Conservative MPs who are not standing for re-election, among them former Brexit campaigner and Health minister Andrea Leadsom.

This number is a record, apparently, comparable to the Conservative MP drain that took place in 1997 before Tony Blair became Prime Minister that May.

As I wrote earlier this year, many of them have served in the House of Commons for at least ten years, some for over 30.

It will be sad to see some of the elder statesmen go, e.g. Bill Cash, who at 82 has a forensic approach to the law and was a superb head of the European Scrutiny Select Committee, keeping an eye on the UK post-Brexit.

On the other hand, it is a pleasure to discover that troublemaker Michael Gove, a Cabinet minister long before 2019, will not be running again.

Speaking of troublemakers, one of the outgoing Conservatives, Lucy Allan, pledged her support at the weekend for the Reform Party candidate in her former constituency of Telford.

Guido has the story (red emphases, italics his), beginning with her message on X …

I am supporting Alan Adams to be Telford’s next MP. If you want to help Alan or donate to his campaign, sign up on his website http://alanadams.co.uk

… followed by this:

UPDATE: Tory spokesman says: “Lucy Allan has been suspended from the Party with immediate effect. The people of Telford now have the chance to vote for a dedicated and hardworking new candidate who will put Telford first. A vote for Reform is a vote for Keir Starmer.”

A number of Conservative MPs who are standing again are unhappy at the way Prime Minister Rishi Sunak abruptly called for the July 4 election date last Wednesday, May 22.

The Guardian‘s political editor Pippa Crerar wrote about MPs’ mixed emotions on Friday, May 24:

In the frenzied hours shortly after Rishi Sunak made his surprise election announcement on Wednesday, despairing Tory MPs could be spotted wandering around Westminster contemplating their fate.

One government minister was seen thrusting his official red folder towards his opposition number, whom he had happened to bump into. “You might as well have this now,” he said …

Sunak’s surprise election call, when the Conservatives are 20 points behind, the biggest gap for an incumbent party since polling began, has left many of his own MPs shocked, fearful and, in some cases, angry.

They had assumed the prime minister would opt for an autumn poll, giving time for the economic recovery to filter through to the public, the deportation flights to Rwanda to take off, and Labour to be subject to the white glare of scrutiny.

The plan to have the election in July had been a tightly guarded secret, with Sunak believed to have begun seriously weighing up the decision a month ago. Tory insiders say that he finally made his mind up after the local elections.

But the decision also split his advisers, with Isaac Levido, the election strategist who helped Boris Johnson deliver his massive 80-seat majority, recommending waiting until the autumn, a time, when they hoped, the public would feel better off …

One Tory backbencher, asked after the announcement if the July election was a good idea, replied: “It’s a disaster. I can’t understand it.” Another said simply: “No.”

Not all Tory MPs were so defeatist. Even among those who thought the summer election was a mistake, there were plenty determined to fight on, doing everything they might locally to encourage voters to back them, even if the national picture looked bleak.

One veteran MP in a marginal seat said: “Of course I’m going to fight it, I don’t believe in just giving up like the prime minister has obviously decided to.”

Another MP whose seat is on a knife-edge was prepared to embrace the call. “I think there are colleagues who are more bound to lose than me, who perhaps feel it is a little indelicate,” the MP said, hinting that Sunak had thought little about the employment and financial prospects for his cast-out troops …

The combination of seats previously regarded as safe now looking marginal, and the fall in ground troops willing to knock on doors, had even the most optimistic MPs worried.

One former minister warned that the party would struggle to encourage disillusioned activists, many of whom will have lost their council seats in the last two local elections, to turn out.

While some MPs have cancelled holidays to prepare for the election, more than one admitted they were sticking to their plans, although would not be widely advertising their trip.

Steve Baker, who is likely to lose his High Wycombe seat, said he had decided not to cancel any plans for school half-term. “I can tell you, I am going to keep to my plans.”

Some frustration towards the prime minister was already evident before he set the date, with Tory whips suggesting they thought the number of letters being sent in had been “getting close” to the threshold needed to trigger a confidence vote. It was unclear whether that was a factor in Sunak’s decision.

Either way, time ran out for the rebels, with one Tory backbencher saying: “It’s too late. We could have a leadership contest, but that would mean nothing. The king has already consented to an election” …

To make matters worse, Conservative Campaign Headquarters (CCHQ) criticised MPs for not getting a move on. The Times reported:

Conservative ministers and MPs have failed to “get behind” campaigning and have refused to knock on doors, a leaked memo from Tory headquarters sent days into the general election campaign has revealed.

Conservative staff accused MPs of focusing too much on ministerial business in a document accidentally emailed to party MPs by a senior campaigning figure at Conservative Campaign Headquarters (CCHQ).

The message had two attachments. One was a constituency breakdown with what appeared to be sanitised comments. The other had the unvarnished thoughts of Conservative staff. The email was later recalled.

The “key theme” identified in the document was that candidates had failed to “get behind” the campaign, with some on holiday or refusing to knock on doors …

The memo singled out constituencies believed to be part of the 80/20 strategy used by CCHQ which piles resources into the 80 most marginal seats and the top 20 the party believes it could gain.

Money is another problem. Donations are drying up:

In Bury North in Greater Manchester, the seat held by James Daly, deputy chairman of the party, it was said there were “low funds, circa £2k, met with donors but so far no donations”.

Daly told Times Radio:

I’m not going to talk about my personal election finances to you. What I can say is, I will have enough money within my fighting fund.

Other MPs also have only mere thousands in their campaign war chests:

In Thurrock, Essex, where Dame Jackie Doyle-Price is the MP, it was noted that money raised so far has been spent and “few donors [are] available”.

In Plymouth Moor View, the seat of Johnny Mercer, the veterans minister, staff said there was a issue with “MP co-operation with CCHQ” and “funding issues — currently £2k in bank” and support had been offered. The Times reported last week that Mercer had written a memo over his frustration with Rishi Sunak’s domination of campaigning.

The West Country seats such of Frome and East Somerset [Jacob Rees-Mogg] and Glastonbury and Somerton were said to “urgently need” a chunk of funding.

Rishi’s national service plan laughable

Another bone of contention among Conservative MPs was Rishi’s sudden announcement late last week that he planned to re-introduce national service.

On Monday, May 27, The Times reported:

Rishi Sunak’s plan to introduce man­datory national service for all 18-year-olds has been publicly criticised by one of his own ministers as a Tory row broke out over the policy.

Steve Baker, a minister of state at the Northern Ireland Office, said that the plan to force teenagers to sign up to a one-year military placement or spend a weekend of each month volunteering was drawn up by political advisers and “sprung on” Tory MPs and candidates.

He said that ministers would be consulted on the plan before it ever became government policy and distanced himself from it by describing it simply as “a Conservative Party policy”.

Baker wrote on Twitter/X: “I don’t like to be pedantic but a government policy would have been developed by ministers on the advice of officials and collectively agreed. I would have had a say on behalf of NI. But this proposal was developed by a political adviser or advisers and sprung on candidates, some of whom are relevant ministers.”

Baker also pointed to the fact that a defence minister had ruled out the idea of restoring national service on the same day that Sunak called the election. Andrew Murrison said that it risked harming morale in the military. A source close to Baker told The Times: “He knows he could be sacked as a candidate [over his outspoken comments] and he thinks it would be worth it” …

The row escalated further yesterday after James Daly, the deputy chairman of the Conservative Party, slapped down his colleague Anne-Marie Trevelyan, a Foreign Office minister, who had earlier refused to rule out the prospect that parents could be punished if teenagers refused to sign up to national service, after being asked by Times Radio. Daly, also appearing on Times Radio, attempted to rule out the prospect of parents being fined, saying that Trevelyan “certainly doesn’t have responsibility for this area” …

Another technocrat like Rishi, France’s Emmanuel Macron, has re-introduced national service with the expected 21st century result as explored by The Times, ‘France’s national service scheme beset by drugs and disorder’:

Pot-smoking and fights at a northern training camp have raised fresh doubts about President Macron’s plans to make France’s three-year-old national service scheme compulsory for teenagers.

Police were twice called in to quell disorder at the residential centre at Sangatte, near Calais, where 100 volunteers between 15 and 17 were staying as part of the Universal National Service (SNU).

The scheme, started in 2021 to fulfill one of Macron’s election promises, seeks to promote civic spirit and a sense of duty while allowing boys and girls from different backgrounds to mix away from their home areas.

This year 80,000 teenagers are expected to join the programme, which is one of the inspirations for Rishi Sunak’s proposed British scheme, but Macron has been forced to delay his plans for mandatory service …

Pictures from the Sangatte residential, or séjour de cohésion, show teenagers making aggressive hand gestures. A participant posted the picture on TikTok, with the title: “The most ghetto SNU”.

Timéo, a 16-year-old from Bondy, one of the northeast Paris suburbs worst affected by riots, said he had been beaten up after the camp deteriorated into brawls and drug-taking. Several staff were sacked and vented their anger by smashing furniture, he added.

Dominique, a trainer, told Le Parisien newspaper: “I never saw anything like it. Kids were booing the flag. I wondered why they were there. There were staff who were far too close to the kids and managers who weren’t promoting the values of the republic.”

The education ministry said an inquiry had been opened into the “unacceptable” events but argued that they were part of an isolated incident …

A UK experiment with this would likely turn out the same way. It is a bad idea and, contrary to what Rishi and his young buck staffers think, will not garner votes from older people.

No Boris bounce this time

2019 Conservative voters are still disappointed that former Prime Minister Boris Johnson was forced to resign in 2022.

On Sunday, May 26, the Mail on Sunday published polling results that show Boris would have cut into Labour’s potential for parliamentary seats. However, even then, Boris would not have the votes to become Prime Minister again:

The good news for supporters of Boris Johnson is that if he were leading the Tory party into the election, he would cut Labour‘s majority by 114 seats.

The bad news is that this would still leave Sir Keir Starmer with a thumping majority of 226 seats.

A Deltapoll survey for The Mail on Sunday shows the electoral Everest Rishi Sunak has to climb. 

If the poll w[ere] held tomorrow, Labour would lead by 45 per cent to 23 per cent, a lead of 22, which – when combined with Reform UK’s 10 per cent – would mean a Labour majority of 340, according to calculations by the pollsters. Sunak would be one of just 77 Tory MPs left.

Under Boris, the gap would narrow to 16 points, with Nigel Farage‘s Reform withering to 6 per cent.

The decline in Conservatives’ polling dates back to the time of Boris’s partygate revelation in December 2021:

Joe Twyman, the co-founder and director of Deltapoll, said: ‘The results for today’s Mail on Sunday show just how large the challenge is facing the Conservatives to stay in power …

‘The difficult reality facing Rishi Sunak and his party is that these latest numbers are simply the continuation of a long-term trend.’ 

He said the Tories have not been ahead in any published opinion poll since December 2021.

Rishi won’t leave if he loses

Most Conservatives, I think, believe that Rishi is desperate to leave the UK and start afresh in California, where he met his wife at Stanford University.

An article in The Times on Monday, May 27, says that he would stay here regardless:

Rishi Sunak has said that he will stay on as an MP for the whole of the next parliament — potentially as late as 2029 — regardless of the election result as he denied claims that he would move to the US.

However, Lord Goldsmith suggests that Rishi is merely posturing:

Lord Goldsmith of Richmond Park accused the prime minister of damaging the Conservative Party “almost beyond repair” and will probably “disappear off to California” if he loses the election.

In a stinging critique of the party’s fortunes under Sunak, he said that a majority of Tory MPs would lose their seats at the election.

He wrote on Twitter/X: “It’s hard to muster much sympathy given that none of this would have happened without the complicity of a majority of the Party & what is now unfolding was entirely predictable — indeed predicted.

“The hope is that when Sunak disappears off to California in a few weeks, there are at least some decent MPs left around with which to rebuild.”

Rishi responded:

“I’m not sure how Lord Goldsmith, who I’ve not spoken to in a very long time, has an intimate knowledge of my family arrangements.”

Confirming that he would remain in the UK, he said: “This is my home. And as I said earlier, my football team was promoted to the Premier League. So I intend to spend many more happy occasions watching them. So, yeah, of course that’s what I’m going to do. I was born and brought up in Southampton. I was raised with a very strong ethic of service.”

We shall see.

This reminds me of the morning after the Brexit referendum. Around 9:30 a.m. on Friday, June 24, David Cameron resigned as leader of the Conservative Party — therefore, as Prime Minister — after having promised the British public that he would support whatever way they voted.

Therefore, I’m taking Rishi’s words with a grain of salt. Don’t forget that it was Rishi who made David Cameron Lord Cameron and our Foreign Secretary in the autumn of 2023. Birds of a feather?

Labour

Elsewhere on the hustings, we saw Labour’s Deputy Leader Angela Rayner plea with her male Muslim constituents to vote for her again on July 4.

She is afraid that George Galloway, the current MP for Rochdale, is in a good position to field a candidate from his British Workers Party into her constituency. Galloway is very much pro-Palestine, one of the reasons he won Rochdale in the by-election earlier this year.

Guido has the video of Rayner and soundbites:

Guido has obtained a leaked tape from inside a meeting between Angela Rayner and Muslim voters in Ashton-under-Lyne, held along with the recently ennobled Labour peer and former mayor, Lord Khan of Burnley. As George Galloway keeps up his campaign to remove Rayner from the seat by weaponising the Muslim vote, the deputy leader pleads for their support and says she only won the seat in the last election thanks to them:

2019 was a very difficult year in Ashton. My voters were very upset with the Labour Party: I was with you and you saw me over the line. You supported me. In seats that are similar to mine people lost their seat – you were there for me and I don’t believe I could have done that without you.

She added that if her resignation brought about a ceasefire between Hamas and Israel, she would do it.

Also:

She puts her own spin on Starmer’s line last week that Palestine should be recognised at some point “as part of a peace process”:

I will push to recognise it: there is nothing to recognise at the moment, sadly. It’s decimated. We have to rebuild Palestine, we have to rebuild Gaza.

That’s a justification for Labour’s current policy to push for recognition after a deal is secured as opposed to before. Is “there is nothing to recognise” the official Labour line?

Lib Dems need new campaign posters

Meanwhile, Guido tells us, with supporting photographs, that the Liberal Democrats went out this weekend with posters from the Thursday, May 2, local elections:

Recycling leaflets is one way to get ahead of a sped up campaign schedule. At least they’re taking their environmental policies to heart…

Indeed.

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This is likely to be the most boring general election campaign in recent memory.

Rishi has ‘a plan’ and he urges us to ‘stick with the plan’. Sir Keir Starmer introduces new pledges nearly every week, so who can believe him? That said, Scottish Labour could win hugely over the SNP, a party that has had its day.

Reform will go nowhere. The Lib Dems could pick up a few seats in the south and west of England.

The only person who is remotely interesting and who could win seats chipping into Labour’s count on July 4 is George Galloway, an outstanding orator even if I profoundly disagree with his politics.