UK: midweek general election campaign roundup

We are now just over one week away from the general election in the United Kingdom.

Will there be an eleventh-hour surprise? It looks doubtful. We are in stasis, with every party but Nigel Farage’s Reform, the focus of tomorrow’s post. That said, it is doubtful whether Reform will sweep the boards come Thursday, July 4, 2024.

The Sun‘s Election Showdown

Has there ever been a more enthusiastic political editor than The Sun‘s Harry Cole? No, there has not. Furthermore, Cole has his finger on the political pulse.

It is worth mentioning that Cole used to work for Guido Fawkes many moons ago.

On Monday, June 24, Cole hosted the paper’s Election Showdown, featuring Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer in an hour-long Q&A programme.

However, even Cole’s enthusiasm could not compensate for the leaders’ lacklustre performances.

Guido has a summary of soundbites and the verdict (red emphases his):

That’s the leader proceedings over. No new lines here…

50/50 split on hands when it comes to who did better.

Labour: clear and present danger

Labour will say and do anything to appear reasonable to voters in order to win power.

Jeremy Corbyn’s radicalism was an outlier in 2017 and 2019. The overarching norm is Blairism. In 1997, Tony Blair appeared on many political programmes before the election in May that year touting his Third Way. My nearest and dearest said to me at the time, ‘Notice he isn’t saying what he will or won’t do. He’s not answering the questions.’

He wasn’t, but I wasn’t hearing that at the time. He appeared young and reasonable. Thirteen years later, I learned my lesson about Labour. They cannot be trusted.

Examples from their 2024 campaign follow.

Tax rises: yes or no?

On Sunday, June 23, the shadow Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson said that shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves was not interested in raising taxes:

Yet, just a few days later, on Wednesday, June 26, Rachel Reeves refused to rule out tax rises in the first budget, which would be in the autumn.

Guido issued a warning, based on this exchange between the current Chancellor and Reeves’s office:

Jeremy Hunt wrote to Rachel Reeves yesterday to rule out any tax rises in her first budget …

Reeves’ spokesman offered no denial:

It shows how desperate the Conservatives‘ campaign has got that they have asked Jeremy Hunt to come out of hiding and put his name to this nonsense. It’s time for change.

The entirety of pressure within Labour is for hiking taxes and widening the tax base. Labour-linked think tanks are in favour of expansive rises. The Guardian reports that the Party has fully-formed proposals to increase capital gains tax and reform inheritance tax to make it more difficult to pass on farmland without paying tax. Both of which will have ruinous effects…

The Party did not rule out those proposals either …

It should be remembered that Rachel Reeves complained in January that she could not make ends meet on a Parliamentary salary (purple emphases mine):

She made the confession during an interview on Friday when she announced that her party would fight to allow people to have greater financial freedom and pay less in bills.

“What makes me wince is when I look at my bank statement and I find that the money coming in is increasingly short of the money going out,” she told GB News …

Ms Reeves earns £86,584 a year in basic salary from being an MP but would be on closer to £150,000 if Labour was to get into power and she was to become chancellor.

And this woman is going to tell us how much more money she will take out of our wallets? Dear, oh dear.

Labour-controlled Wales ‘blueprint’

Sir Keir Starmer has often lauded Wales in the past year as being the ‘blueprint’ for the rest of the UK should Labour win next week.

Here he is pictured earlier this year with the then-Welsh First Minister, Labour’s Mark Drakeford:

It’s a scary thought as the Welsh Assembly — pardon, the Welsh Senedd (Senate) — has passed all manner of superflous regulations which have to do with socio-political trends and little on a practical level. Furthermore, Vaughan Gething, their new First Minister — pardon, Prif Weinidog — lost a vote of confidence a few weeks ago over a dodgy campaign contribution but refuses to stand down.

The Welsh NHS is also in a parlous state, as Guido told us on Monday. Never mind, at least they’ve won an eco-award:

A sobering article in Wales’ Western Mail describes the abject failure of cancer treatment in Wales. Macmillan Cancer Support warns that in the last few years the Welsh NHS, run by Labour, has been racking up records for late treatment of cancer patients. Waiting lists in May hit a record high as a fifth of the Welsh population sits in a queue for treatment. That’s compared to only one in eight across the border…

The next article over happens to be Welsh Labour’s Cabinet Secretary for Health, Eluned Morgan, touting her achievements in “making our NHS services more environmentally friendly“, including scoring a “Chief Nursing Officer’s Sustainability in Nursing and Midwifery” award for one local health board. Yet another app has been created in order to use less paper. Welsh Tory Leader Andrew RT Davies tells Guido it “beggars belief” that Morgan “is more focussed on this woke nonsense” than the cancer crisis. Maybe Labour politicians should focus on treating patients as opposed to patting themselves on the back for racking up eco-awards…

Starmer’s hypocrisy and obfuscation

We are learning more about Sir Keir as the weeks go by. The hypocrisy and obfuscation are becoming more noticeable.

Last week, Guido reminded us that Starmer attended a private school, Reigate Grammar, and attended the prestigious Guildhall School of Music in London on Saturdays.

This is important, because Labour want to levy 20% in VAT on private school fees.

Talk about pulling up the ladder:

Starmer’s secondary education was at Reigate Grammar School – now a private school – which became fee-paying while he was there (Starmer later claimed he didn’t have to pay fees after the change because he was supported by scholarships and exemptions). Little attention has been given to his Saturday school, however. Guildhall remains one of the most prestigious musical institutions in the country, and in its modern form as a university it charges standard tuition fees, as it also did in Starmer’s day. So Starmer, who has repeatedly claimed his background was “working class” and suggested he didn’t have any private education, actually attended a private music school on Saturdays…

Starmer previously confirmed this in 2015, when he told a local Primrose Hill magazine On The Hill: “I was a junior exhibitioner at the Guildhall School of Music till 18.” It is probable that as a talented flautist, Starmer had at least some of his Guildhall fees paid for him, as an exhibitioner. But Labour’s policy to impose VAT on private school fees extends to independent music schools too – and the sector says that the policy would make it harder for children from a similar background to Starmer to attend those schools. Take choir schools, for example, which are largely independent. David Morton, from the Choir Schools Association, says:

Not all independent schools are like Winchester, Eton or Rugby; they are tiny little schools like specialist choir schools. Adding 20pc onto fees could be catastrophic for typical small choir schools. They just won’t be able to afford to pay scholarships for the pupils. If you start to lose these choir schools you will inevitably damage the national heritage in terms of the quality of music you can produce.

In the cloistered world of elite music, Labour is pulling up the ladder, even as Starmer boasts about his own private musical education…

Here is a photo of Keir as a schoolboy and budding accomplished flautist, thanks to someone who posted it online:

Going further, look at the education that pre-2019 Labour MPs have had. Many of them went to Oxbridge, notably Oxford. Many of them went to public (private) schools which enabled them to attend the world’s top universities. Now they want to deprive other British children of that same earned privilege.

Starmer didn’t leave Reigate Grammar behind, either. He continued as part of its old boys network and lauded his Latin master. Latin is a language rarely taught in comprehensive schools.

On Tuesday, June 25, Guido reported:

Given that Starmer will now impose taxes which will push half a million children out of private schools into the over-burdened state sector, you’d think he was an ardent critic of private education. But his consistent involvement with the alumni network of his school suggests otherwise, as a Guido investigation reveals…

In 2016, a few months before the referendum, Starmer found time to attend the celebration of the life of his former Latin master at RGS. Starmer gave the final toast and “asked everyone to look carefully at the image of Aubs [the teacher] that was on the screen and reflected: I was taught by Aubs in the broadest sense of the word. I was taught much more than Latin and like many others I stayed a friend of his throughout his life.” David Jones, a former teacher, wrote of Starmer’s further contributions to the old boys network in 2020:

Even while occupying significant national positions, Keir has been a staunch supporter of Reigate Grammar School and RGS Foundation activities: to me one measure of the man has been his willingness, following events at RGS, to join friends and former teachers for an old-fashioned pint in a local pub. We all take pride in our alumni achieving high office, and Sir Keir Starmer has acquired his latest, and highest office of all so far…

Shortly after Starmer entered politics, a former classmate noted his willingness to attend industry events arranged via “the Reigatian connection” – aka, calling on the old school tie network:

In his post-DPP period and in the early stages of him having entered politics (about 2015, I think), I called on the Reigatian connection, and cajoled Keir into speaking at a dinner for 200+ lawyers at the Law Society. I introduced him in the ordinary way – impressive legal career, QC, DPP, and I think by then, he had been Labour MP for St Pancras for a few months. I then mentioned the RGS connection – we were the era of the Bearded Wonder, Bill Frindall, and of David Walliams, who liked dressing up as a woman. Not the most stunning list of alumni. But Keir? Well, he wasn’t even the most famous person in his own class – because that person was Quentin aka Norman… aka Fat Boy Slim! And for those that contend that Keir is a bit dull and stilted, well not bit of it! He embarked on a two-minute affectionate reminiscence on RGS days. Of violin lessons with ‘Norman’, and of playing in a band with him – “I could’ve been a rock star!”… Very entertaining, a top chap and whilst I tend to vote for the other side (!) Keir is that proper grown up in the room, and just the kind of person the country needs at a time like this, and going forward.

In 2020 Starmer appeared at an event at RGS, literally wearing his old school tie. In other words, Starmer has gone out of his way to assist the elite alumni network of a fee-paying school – now he wants to pull the ladder up for hard pressed families who make sacrifices to pay for private education. Just imagine the networking opportunities if this Old Reigatian becomes Prime Minister…

During the 2024 campaign, Starmer has been presenting himself as a champion of national security.

However, Guido pointed out on Tuesday, June 25, that this was not always the case:

With Julian Assange in focus today, Guido decided to examine likely incoming Prime Minister Starmer’s record on security leaks and similar controversies. In 2014, Starmer did a BBC HARDTalk interview in which he was asked whether he saw Edward Snowden as a criminal or a whistleblower. Starmer agreed he was a “whistleblower” saying:

I think he has brought to the attention of the world information and practices that weren’t otherwise known, so in that sense he is a whistleblower… the question is what they have achieved by blowing the whistle is of a greater good than what they have done wrong, almost every case involving leaked information involves some wrongdoing.

In 2014, these were significant comments to make, and deviated from the UK Government’s position – and certainly that of the US. The Snowden controversy was at its height after he had leaked intelligence documents to the Guardian and Washington Post which revealed the US was collecting mass phone data. When Starmer made the comments, Snowden had already been granted asylum in Russia and was living there in exile (he would go on to become a naturalised Russian citizen and remains under indictment for espionage). When Starmer called Snowden a whistleblower, he had also already had criminal charges filed against him for espionage by the US Government…

Guido went on to say that he did not wish to comment on Starmer’s position, however:

… it is interesting in Starmer’s recent reinvention as a securocrat…

On minor matters, Starmer cannot even maintain a position on his favourite novel.

On Monday, Guido pointed out:

Keir Starmer’s cultural hinterland is a bit, well – changeable. Like almost everything else about the likely incoming Prime Minister…

The Guardian reported over the weekend: “he doesn’t have a favourite novel or poem.” This is at odds with two claims previously made by Starmer. When he was about to become DPP, he told friends his favourite book was Franz Kafka’s The Trial. One of his erstwhile lawyer colleagues commented: “I gave him a copy of Kafka’s The Trial today and said he should read it every year. He says he already knows it backwards.” Very on brand for a prosecutor…

By 2022 Starmer’s favourite book had morphed to James Kelman’s A Disaffection, which he listed as his choice on Desert Island Discs …

Literally the human weathervane… 

With regard to his own children, in January, Starmer couldn’t even remember he had a son and a daughter:

His confusion over gender went even so far as to get the sex of his children wrong, accidentally declaring he has two sons instead of a boy and a girl on Sky News in January. It must have been a slip up. Funny how these things get mixed up…

Indeed it is rather odd.

Taking us back into the EU

On Monday, Guido had two posts about Labour’s plan for re-integrating the UK into the EU.

At lunchtime, Guido told us:

Starmer is still determined to “get a better deal with the EU”. Meanwhile, Labour are also thinking of realigning the UK’s carbon tax regime with the EU, potentially placing the determination of British corporate carbon taxes under Brussels’ control. The remain commentariat giving the game away on Starmer’s rejoin intentions…

That afternoon, Guido cited further confirmation from a Bloomberg debate between Labour’s Jonathan Reynolds and the Conservatives’ Kemi Badenoch:

Reynolds left the door wide open:

Look it’s a negotiation. New Zealand has an agreement of this kind. We’re not going to give away our negotiating hand entirely but we believe, look the argument on on food and agriculture products is this: do you want lower standards than the European Union? If you don’t want lower standards, surely we remove pragmatically some of those checks and balances to make sure we can have as close a relationship as is possible… we should always be seeking to make it the smoothest easiest relationship.

These are the same arguments from the Brexit referendum. As soon as the election is over the vast majority of pressure on and inside Labour will be for one direction of travel…

Indeed it will.

Conservatives reeling from betting scandal; Labour also implicated

My post from last Friday ended with the scandal that hit the Conservative Party with allegations that some insiders placed a wager on the upcoming date of the general election.

This involved the Party’s campaign director, Tony Lee, taking a leave of absence. His wife Laura Saunders, a Conservative candidate, was also implicated.

On a Sunday current affairs show, Home Secretary James Cleverly said he had no reason to believe that Cabinet members bet on the election date:

However, that evening, The Guardian reported that Rishi Sunak was under pressure to do something about the scandal:

Rishi Sunak is facing a growing clamour to come clean about the betting scandal engulfing Westminster after a fifth figure was drawn into the row.

Senior Conservatives were among those calling for candidates and officials to be suspended pending the result of investigations, while the prime minister was urged to get a grip on the drip-drip of revelations.

Labour wrote to the head of the Gambling Commission on Sunday evening urging the watchdog to name those it has placed under investigation “in the public interest”, warning that “ongoing speculation … is casting a shadow over the election”.

The scandal has escalated since the Guardian revealed nearly two weeks ago that Craig Williams, who was Sunak’s closest parliamentary aide, is being investigated by the watchdog for betting £100 on a July election three days before Sunak surprised the country by naming the date.

After being approached for comment by this newspaper, Williams said he “put a flutter on the general election some weeks ago” and the following day said he had made a “huge error of judgment”.

Five people linked to Sunak or the Conservatives have been identified as being part of the watchdog’s inquiries so far. They include Williams; the Tory candidate Laura Saunders and her husband, Tony Lee, who is the party’s campaign director; and Nick Mason, the party’s data officer.

An unnamed Metropolitan police officer who is part of Sunak’s close protection security team has also been arrested in connection with the inquiry into bets placed on a July election.

On Tuesday morning, Guido told us that the Party had dropped Craig Williams, who was seeking re-election, and Laura Saunders, a new Conservative candidate.

It is too late now to change the ballot papers. However, were one or both to be elected, they would have to serve as Independents.

Guido also posted this:

UPDATE: Labour, predictably, sticks the knife in: “It is yet another example of Rishi Sunak’s staggeringly weak leadership that it has taken him nearly two weeks to see what was obvious to everyone else. The Conservatives who sought to line their own pockets by betting on the election date are not fit to be candidates for parliament.

However, Labour acted rather precipitously, as one of their candidates was also implicated in betting, albeit against himself.

Guido reported:

Labour has just suspended their candidate for Central Suffolk & North Ipswich, Kevin Craig, after being told the Gambling Commission has launched an investigation into him. Pushed onto the sword…

UPDATE: Sky News says Craig placed a bet on the outcome of his constituency, not on the date of the election.

UPDATE II: The BBC reports that Craig bet against himself.

The waters became murkier, as Sue Gray, the former civil servant above reproach who became Starmer’s chief of staff, got pulled indirectly into the scandal.

Guido dug around in the press to find out more about the tangled web:

The scandal reveals a curious little web created by the revolving door at the top of the police, British government, and media – not that anyone has been bothered to mention it. Leave it to Guido…

This morning’s Telegraph reports that the Metropolitan Police is behind leaks of the names of Tories who allegedly put bets on the election date. Guido previously pointed out the proximity of the Gambling Commission to Labour. The Telegraph reports:

Scotland Yard has been accused of leaking the identities of Tories implicated in the general election betting scandal. The Telegraph has also been told that a further five police officers are currently under investigation by the Gambling Commission, the industry watchdog, for placing bets on the date of the general election. A source close to the Cabinet Office said it was suspected that the identities of Conservative candidates and officials had been leaked from within the Metropolitan Police, Britain’s biggest force.

This is an unusually blunt accusation during election purdah from the usually impenetrable Cabinet Office. Who is the current Director of Comms of the Met? None other than Ray Tang, the former Cabinet Office comms chief who acted as Sue Gray’s personal spin doctor during ‘partygate’. Gray, of course, is now Keir Starmer’s right hand woman…

Mr Tang, who recently received an OBE for ‘public service’, runs the comms department now being publicly accused of leaking the betting scandal names by his former colleagues in the Cabinet Office. In so doing, Cabinet Office sources are basically suggesting that the Met is effectively aiding Labour. The Met have put out a strong denial this morning, calling the Cabinet Office’s claim ‘simply untrue’. Former ethics chief Sue Gray can’t be involved…

That evening, news emerged that a Conservative member of the Welsh Senedd is alleged to have been involved.

The Guardian reported:

The Gambling Commission has informed Russell George, a Tory member of the Welsh parliament who represents the same constituency as Sunak’s closest parliamentary aide Craig Williams, that he is part of its inquiry …

George, a Senedd member, is the latest Tory figure to be facing an investigation in a growing gambling affair that has engulfed the party during the election campaign and has led to at least two party officials taking leave of absence from headquarters.

He represents Montgomeryshire in the Welsh parliament, covering the same area that Williams represented at Westminster. He will step back from his role as the Welsh Tories’ deputy chief whip until the investigation has concluded.

In a statement to the Guardian, he said: “Whilst I will cooperate fully with the Gambling Commission, it would not be appropriate to comment on this independent and confidential process.

“Doing so would only jeopardise and undermine the investigation. It is the Gambling Commission, not the media, that has the responsibility, powers and resources to properly investigate these matters and determine what, if any, action should be taken.

“I have stepped back from the shadow cabinet while the investigation is ongoing. I have done this as I do not wish to be an unnecessary distraction to their work.”

Andrew RT Davies, leader of the Welsh Conservatives, said: “Russell George has informed me that he has received a letter from the Gambling Commission regarding bets on the timing of the general election.

“Russell George has stepped back from the Welsh Conservative shadow cabinet while these investigations are ongoing.

“All other members of the Welsh Conservative Group have confirmed that they have not placed any bets.

“I will not issue further comment on this ongoing process, recognising the Gambling Commission’s instruction for confidentiality to protect the integrity of the process.”

More Metropolitan police officers are under investigation, too:

… the Met has also confirmed that five more police officers have been identified by the watchdog – a week after it announced that a protection officer guarding the prime minister had been arrested for allegedly placing a bet.

As far as the suspended Labour candidate Kevin Craig is concerned:

Labour said it would now return £100,000 he had donated to the party under Keir Starmer’s leadership, while the shadow health secretary, Wes Streeting, would give back £13,000 donated for staffing costs.

Marsha de Cordova, another Labour candidate, also said she would give back £2,436 Craig donated earlier this year …

In a statement, Craig said: “Throughout my life I have enjoyed the odd bet for fun whether on politics or horses. A few weeks ago when I thought I would never win this seat I put a bet on the Tories to win here with the intention of giving any winnings to local charities.

“While I did not place this bet with any prior knowledge of the outcome, this was a huge mistake, for which I apologise unreservedly.”

He added: “It is right that the party upholds the highest standards for its parliamentary candidates – just as the public expects the highest standards from any party hoping to serve in government. I deeply regret what I have done and will take the consequences of this stupid error of judgment on the chin.”

Scottish Secretary Alister Jack also confessed to betting:

… he had placed three bets on the date of the general election, one of which was successful, but said that he wanted to make “absolutely clear I have not breached any gambling rules”.

“I had no knowledge of the date of the election until the day it was called. As I have said previously, I placed no bets in May and am not under investigation by the Gambling Commission,” he said.

Tomorrow’s spotlight will be on Nigel Farage, leader and star of the Reform Party.